CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-04T23:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17663/-1
CME Note: The start time of the CME is possibly earlier than indicated (updated from original time of 2021-09-05T01:09Z). There was missing data in COR2A before the indicated start time. The eruption was associated with a B4.5 flare that started at 2021-09-04T21:06Z and peaked at 2021-09-04T21:33Z. There was EUV wave signature associated with the eruption and visible in SDO/AIA 193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: No discernable arrival signature was observed for this CME in the avilable data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-09T16:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Tuesday, September 7, 2021 4:38 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-09-09T16:30:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 4 probability_of_arrival: 40 --- :Issued: 2021 Sep 07 0802 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A very faint partial halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images during the night of Sept 5th/early morning of Sept 6th. The CME is associated with a filament eruption around active region NOAA 2865 in the late afternoon of Sept 05th, followed by high B-class flaring from NOAA 2865 (peak 18:11 UTC) and NOAA 2864 (peak 18:11 UTC) in the evening. An associated EIT wave and coronal dimming are observed. The CME has a projected velocity of under 150 km/s and an angular width of about 250 degrees. Glancing blow from this CME might arrive to Earth on Sept 10th. Due to the slow speed and the faint ejecta no significant impact on Earth is expected. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 55.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-09-07T08:38Z
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